We are in an era of great changes in the energy pattern. This era is an era of technological change. This era is an era of institutional reform. With the continuous opening of the power market, the existing business model and profit model of the energy industry are about to face a huge impact. This era is the era of "Internet plus". The continuous integration of the Internet and energy and the emergence of non-traditional competitors are accelerating the process of industry disruption.
The energy Internet is an open platform
The concept of the "energy Internet" first emerged in Jeremy Rifkin's 2012 book, "the third industrial revolution," which identified four key features of the energy Internet. Energy efficiency is the main primary energy source. Serial large scale access to distributed power generation and energy storage system, forming a new form of production and marketing integration; Wider energy sharing based on Internet technology; The electrification of a transportation system that supports the conversion of fuel cars to electric ones.
As described by rifkin, we think that the Internet is based on the smart grid energy as the core, based on renewable energy and the Internet, through the energy and information fusion, to realize the clean utilization of energy efficient new energy system. Is the distributed generation, energy storage system, load and other components of a large number of micro-energy network, forming a new model of integration of production and marketing; It adopts advanced information technology, intelligent terminals and platforms to make energy and information flow in both directions and exchange on the same basis. It is an intelligent platform that integrates the traditional power grid and the intelligent technology extensively, gives full play to the advanced transmission technology, and upgrades the traditional power grid into a powerful energy and resources optimization and allocation function.
Similar to the traditional Internet, the energy Internet has three basic features: intelligence, platform and sharing. Intelligence is embodied in the intelligent collection and opening of information closed loop of energy big data by the energy Internet. Platformalization is reflected in breaking down industry barriers and accepting various market entities. Sharing is reflected in helping to share industry resources and realize industrial complementarity.
The "three levels" industry opportunity of energy Internet
Energy the development of the Internet will topple the existing energy structure and energy system, and create new business models and opportunities emerge, with the deepening of the capital market intervention, we think the chance of the energy of the future Internet will form a "three level" industry opportunities.
At the physical network level, the power network is taken as the main framework to fuse the network of gas and heat, covering the entire energy chain including energy production, transmission, consumption, storage and transformation. Business opportunities include distributed energy generation, micro-grid construction, incremental distribution networks, electricity sales, and electric vehicles. In the aspect of data information, the Internet of things, big data, the rapid development of information technology such as mobile Internet, for energy production, transmission, consumption, storage and consumption of the whole industry chain to provide information support. Business opportunities include big data analysis, information data exchange, data security, intelligent trading systems (carbon trading, power trading), etc.
At the operation platform level, we should make full use of the Internet thinking, user-centered, and realize business value. Provide operational value-added services and solutions throughout the energy chain. Business opportunities include operations and maintenance services, demand side management, and integrated energy services.
The development stage and market attraction of different business opportunities are different, and we selected the ten industrial opportunities with opportunities in the future.
The most promising industries for rapid development in recent years include gas distribution, photovoltaic distribution, incremental distribution networks, electric vehicles and demand-side management.
Gas distributed capacity will grow by 17.5% a year to 25gw by 2035. The five major power groups, gas and oil companies and professional technical service companies and other enterprises can find time to position themselves in the business of gas distribution.
China's photovoltaic market is now the largest in the world, and new installed capacity will remain 20% to 30% of global growth. We predict that by 2035, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic will reach 300gw, among which the large and medium-sized distributed (>=1MW) will account for about 60%.
Incremental let go of the distribution network brought by the electric power system reform will face more fierce competition, the increment distribution network including new industrial area construction, the existing park expansion, new commercial center and a series of original monopoly by power grid enterprise's quality distribution network resources. We expect that by 2035, the incremental capacity of the national industrial and commercial distribution network will reach about 555 gigawatts.
As one of the fastest growing industries in recent years, electric cars are expected to have more than 30 million vehicles in 2035, and sales are expected to exceed 5 million in that year.
Demand side management is to point to by taking effective measures to guide electricity users optimize the way of power demand, improve the efficiency of terminal power, optimize the allocation of resources, improve and protect the environment, to achieve the minimum cost of electricity power service management activities. In China is a big space to demand side response, such as in summer in east China Daily load composition, business accounted for 16%, adjustable load civil adjustable load accounted for 13%, total adjustable load proportion reached 29%
Besides to the rapid development of the industry recently, we think like storage, micro power grid, energy trading, virtual power plant and carbon trading are also can be further to explore the direction of the industry in the future.
Opportunity favors the changers forever
For traditional power grid enterprises, the challenges brought by the energy Internet are real. Especially, the opening of incremental distribution network and the openness and sharing of energy Internet will greatly weaken the control power of power grid. High-quality customers will be lost to more competitive products and services, as evidenced by the continuous loss of customers to its main power grid after the reform of foreign electricity. Therefore, for the traditional power grid enterprises, it is necessary to change their thinking, actively participate in the competition, maintain the incremental distribution network on the demand side, and actively develop the comprehensive energy services such as triple supply. On the supply side, we can grasp the national policies and vigorously develop clean energy. At the same time, we should pay attention to and incubate potential competitive industries and rapidly open up the industrial chain. Therefore, traditional power grid enterprises need to "actively transform and build the strength of market competition".
For traditional power generation and other energy enterprises, the energy Internet era presents both challenges and opportunities. Power companies are gradually moving from behind the scenes to the front desk to face customers directly, so they are bound to face diversified business types. Due to the decline in the growth of power demand, we should change our thinking in a timely manner and gradually transform from a single horizontal competition with power generation enterprises into a multi-link competition. Traditional power generation enterprises should focus on clean energy power generation, actively integrated energy business layout, focus on distributed energy, to provide decision support for demand side response system, thus further take advantage position in the energy of the Internet. In a word, the traditional energy generation enterprises should "face the customers and go to the end market".
For power equipment companies, the energy Internet is undoubtedly a higher requirement for enterprises that are implementing "made in China 2025". For equipment enterprises, it is urgent to solve the insufficient integration of energy and "Internet", and to support and promote the upgrading and development of power equipment manufacturing. At the same time, we can consider cooperating with other enterprises to actively contribute to the Internet of things and artificial intelligence and jointly develop intelligent solutions. In a word, equipment enterprises need to actively "upgrade and upgrade and give full play to the advantages of intelligent manufacturing".
For Internet and information technology companies, big data on energy is a very important cornerstone of the future energy Internet. In April 2016, the national development and reform commission issued the "about promoting the development of the" Internet + "wisdom energy guidance", which clearly put forward "great energy data service application development", the information technology enterprise put forward the requirements and expectations, in large data sharing, business integration and security service system and industry demand three aspects put forward the management and supervision system. But because of the great energy data sharing and trade is still a young state, how to effectively obtain great energy data, and put great energy data with other big data fusion, to maximize the value of great energy data, need to the Internet and information technology enterprise further in-depth discussion and research, to seek and maximize the interests of all parties. All in all, for Internet and information technology companies, it is to "effectively integrate and dig deep into the value of [energy] data".